Explore possible finishes based on the selected approach, season-to-date data, and the remaining schedule. This is an estimate, not the official standings.
About this approach Default
An experimental xG Poisson model that adjusts each team's scoring and defending rates for short recovery and a third match within nine days.
Model evaluation See how the forecast approaches performed historically.
xG coverage: 216 of 216 completed matches. xG data refreshed .
Projected outlook
Sorted by expected points. Playoff chances reflect the full range of simulated finishes. Championship chances include a simulated playoff bracket. Expand a team’s finish distribution for its range of outcomes.
Playoff line: top 8
Swipe left on the table to see every column
| # | Team | Expected points | Playoffs | Top 4 | Shield | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 1–2
|
59.480%: 56–62 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.9% | 15.5% |
| 2 | San Diego Wave FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 1–3
|
56.280%: 53–60 | 100.0% | 99.2% | 16.2% | 24.7% |
| 3 | Washington Spirit Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 2–4
|
54.080%: 52–56 | 100.0% | 95.1% | 6.8% | 13.4% |
| 4 | Utah Royals FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 3–7
|
50.080%: 47–53 | 98.2% | 39.7% | 0.1% | 6.4% |
| 5 | Kansas City Current Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 4–8
|
49.080%: 46–53 | 96.2% | 30.9% | 0.0% | 14.2% |
| 6 | Angel City FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 4–8
|
48.280%: 45–52 | 94.5% | 20.6% | 0.0% | 9.8% |
| 7 | Portland Thorns FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 5–9
|
47.380%: 44–50 | 83.8% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 5–9
|
46.880%: 44–49 | 81.4% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 9.9% |
| 9 | Seattle Reign FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 7–10
|
44.680%: 41–47 | 34.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 10 | Denver Summit FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 8–10
|
42.080%: 39–45 | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 11 | Orlando Pride Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 11–12
|
37.080%: 34–40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Houston Dash Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 11–13
|
34.080%: 31–37 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Boston Legacy FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 12–14
|
32.580%: 30–35 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Bay FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 13–15
|
29.080%: 26–32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Racing Louisville FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 14–15
|
27.180%: 24–30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Chicago Stars FC Finish distributionMiddle 80%: 16–16
|
19.380%: 17–22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Your scenario
No fixed results. Every remaining fixture is simulated.
Build a scenario
Choose a fixture and result. Add more if you like, then apply your scenario.
No unfixed fixtures remain for this team.
New assumptions
What this forecast considers
Data considered: Available ASA team-model xG, current-season fixture kickoffs, and the two previous regular seasons for league home and away xG rates.
At a high level: Recovery pressure increases between six and five elapsed days and then saturates; a third match within nine elapsed days adds a separate accumulated-load effect. Development-only estimates are strongly shrunk and adjust the teams' relative strength without changing their geometric-mean scoring rate.
It estimates each remaining match, then summarizes many possible final tables.
Championship odds continue each simulated table through the eight-team bracket. The higher seed hosts the quarterfinal and semifinal in the model; the designated-site final averages both home assignments. A match tied after 90 minutes advances a team using the model’s relative win chances as an approximation for extra time and penalties. Future playoff dates and venue changes are not known to the model.
When you set a win, draw, or loss, the exact score remains open. That can leave tiebreaks uncertain.