This compares each forecast with the final regular-season table at different points in past seasons. Lower error is better. The default view uses final-test seasons that were held out while the models were designed.
Read this chart
Final points error is the average number of points each team’s projected final total missed by. Final table-position error is the average number of places each team’s projected final rank missed by.
The relative view keeps the simple straight-line pace baseline at 1.00. A value below 1.00 means a model was closer to the final table; for example, 0.90 means 10% less error. The absolute view shows the natural decline in error as more of a season has been played.
More about the comparison
The simple baseline carries a team’s observed points pace forward and deliberately does not correct for home field. It helps show whether a more sophisticated model delivers a useful improvement.
Each point on the chart pools forecasts made while the indicated share of the regular-season schedule was complete. The page shows descriptive stage results; it does not change the precommitted rule used to choose the default model.
- Straight-line pace
straight-line-pace-v1 - Current pace
current-pace-v1 - Results Poisson
results-poisson-home-two-seasons-v1 - xG Poisson
xg-poisson-home-two-seasons-v1 - xG Poisson (recent form)
xg-poisson-recent-form-v1 - xG Poisson (schedule load)
xg-poisson-schedule-load-v1